prijava
MOSTAR, March 5 (FENA) - In the years ahead, Bosnia and Herzegovina will face serious challenges regarding the sustainability of the pension and health system, told FENA demographic expert Aleksandar Čavić.
Since the last population census in 2013 to today, BiH has about 100,000 fewer inhabitants based only on the natural population movement. When it comes to migration, at least 25 thousand people leave our country every year, which is an optimistic estimate.
"Given that we do not have statistics on external migration, we get these data through Eurostat data on the number of immigrants to European Union countries, then through data from diplomatic and consular missions of other countries in BiH, non-governmental sector estimates are different, but the most optimistic estimates say that 20-25 thousand inhabitants leave BiH on an annual basis. Bosnia and Herzegovina, in the best-case scenario, lost at least 250 thousand inhabitants in the last ten years," explained Čavić.
Therefore, the demographer points out, the data on natural population movement and external migration show that in the last ten years, BiH has lost at least 350 thousand inhabitants, and some estimates go up to half a million fewer inhabitants compared to the 2013 census.
Over 40 percent of the population is over 65 years old
Data from the UN Population Fund indicate that by 2070, the number of those living in BiH could drop to 1.56 million, or to 1.2 million according to pessimistic estimates. Čavić believes that these data are alarming, not only because of the number of the population but also because of the structure of the population by that time.
" As much as the number itself is worrying, the structure of those 1.2 or 1.5 million inhabitants is even more alarming, of which over 40 percent would be people over 65 years old. When it comes to the costs and organization of social and health care in the country, it will not be a sustainable system, and it will become unsustainable long before 2070," he believes, pointing out that in the years ahead, the largest population group will enter the age of 65+ the age that is associated with the age for obtaining an old-age pension.
Precisely because of such data, it is important to regularly conduct the population census, which was last conducted in Bosnia and Herzegovina in 2013, that is, three years after the population census was conducted by most countries of the world.
The census in Bosnia and Herzegovina was delayed due to political disagreements, and the main dispute was whether those living and working outside Bosnia and Herzegovina would also be counted.
"In countries that do not have other means of monitoring the number and structure of the population, a population census is definitely necessary. I expected that this census would be carried out as was the practice in the former Yugoslavia and in most countries around the world, that is, that the census would be carried out in the first year of each decade," believes demographer Čavić.
He adds that it was understandable that it could not have been carried out because of the pandemic, but Čavić points out that even today there are no indications that the census will be held in the near future. There is, he says, a working version of the text of the Law on Population Census, but nothing more than that.
When will the population census take place in BiH?
Although it has been ten years since the last census, its implementation this year is questionable because no money has been allocated from the state budget, and before that a special law needs to be passed. From the Ministry of Finance and Treasury of Bosnia and Herzegovina, FENA learns that funds for the population census have not been requested yet from the budget.
The Agency for Statistics of BiH is responsible for the population census in BiH, while the census is carried out on the ground by the entity statistics institutes of the Federation of BiH and the entity of Republika Srpska. The BiH Statistics Agency formed a working group that drafted the text of the Law on Population Census and submitted it to the entity institutes for their opinion.
"All three statistical institutions (Statistics Agency of BiH, FBiH Statistics Agency and the RS Statistics Agency) determined that the proposal of the Law on the Population Census cannot be finalized without clearly defined key elements and other important details, such as the census start date, census questions, calculations, map of census cycles, methodological and organizational documents, procurement of IT equipment, implementation of the pilot census and other details, which aim to test the proposed solutions," told FENA Mirsada Adembegović, expert adviser for public relations of the BiH Statistics Agency.
She added that in order to implement the mentioned activities, it is necessary to include other relevant state and entity institutions, in addition to statistical ones.
This year, the agriculture census will be conducted
The BiH Statistics Agency, in cooperation with the entity's statistical institutes, is currently working on preparations for the Agriculture Census, which is planned to be completed at the end of 2023.
"In October of last year, the Trial Census of Agriculture was successfully carried out with the aim of the statistical institutions checking the organization, methodology, technical solutions of the electronic questionnaire, the application for material control, the time required for briefing and enumeration of farms, with the aim of conducting the full census of agriculture as efficiently as possible. Accordingly, the representatives of all three statistical institutions are analyzing the data and experience gained from the trial census, which they will use in the activities related to the preparation of the full agricultural census," said Adembegović.
In addition, the BiH Statistics Agency sent a request for expert assistance to the EU Delegation in BiH, which is in the process of approval.
(FENA) S. R.
