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SARAJEVO, December 8 (FENA) - The Embassy of Sweden in Bosnia and Herzegovina and the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) in cooperation with the BiH Agency for Statistics, the Federal Bureau of Statistics and the Republic Bureau of Statistics of Republika Srpska today presented the Population Analysis and Projection population in Bosnia and Herzegovina for the period 2020 - 2070
It was emphasized at the press conference that BiH belongs to the group of countries with the lowest low fertility rate. With the increase in the average age of birth and the inability of women to reach the desired number of offspring due to socio-economic factors and low reproductive norms, changes occur in many variables related to reproduction.
Representatives of these institutions said that the most important demographic consequence of long-term low fertility will be seen through the reduction of the total number of women of reproductive age, which will further lead to a reduction in the total population.
In addition, the continuous emigration of young, able-bodied people to developed countries, as well as the accelerated aging of the population will have even more significant consequences for the population and development.
As a result, if current socio-economic conditions are maintained, it is expected that the total population in BiH may decrease by more than 50 percent in the next 50 years, while the elderly with a rate higher than 40 percent in the total population will make up the largest population group.
This will undoubtedly have the greatest impact on the four sectors of fundamental interest - education, social protection, health care and the labor market.
UN Resident Coordinator for Bosnia and Herzegovina Ingrid Macdonald said that important data were presented, which were obtained through the cooperation and support of BiH statistical agencies and the UN Population Agency.
“Through this research, we could see that a great risk has been identified for BiH that due to migration, the departure of people, due to the decline in fertility by 2070, the population of BiH will drop to only 1.5 million. This is a very big risk and a serious matter because even in those 1.5 million people we will have the vast majority of the elderly population, and the implications for BiH are that the productivity of the country and the entire population will fall sharply. It’s one big call to action to avoid that risk and those problems,” Macdonald said.
UNFPA Representative for BiH and Director for Northern Macedonia, Serbia and Kosovo (UNSCR) Kennedy Mosoti said that "an important message was given today that we must be ready, and that based on what we have heard, we are not ready."
“What we see being applied are only some measures ‘putting a bandage on the wound’, some measures that are only a partial solution to the problems, and basically what we need is a comprehensive policy that will solve all these challenges we will face in the future. 2070 is not a magical year, these are all problems that we will face, this is something that will affect all spheres of society. It will affect tax policy, social protection, care for people, it will affect the way in which the population can contribute to society,” said Mosoti.
(FENA) L. N.
